Housing Market

Headline price balance improves again but remains negative
• New enquiries stabilise, while new instructions rise
• Sales expectations positive but price expectations net balance
still negative
The April 2011 RICS Housing Market Survey shows a broad based
improvement in market conditions over the month, but the picture overall
remain very subdued.
The price balance improved to its highest level since July 2010, but it still
remains negative i.e. more respondents are seeing price falls rather than
rises. However, the detail of the survey shows that of those respondents
seeing price falls, the vast proportion (82%) are reporting declines within the
0%-2% margin.
On the activity front, new buyer enquiries stabilised in April (having fallen
consistently since last June) while newly agreed sales showed a modest
pickup. New vendor instructions increased robustly, which surveyors
attribute to the unusually good weather during April rather than something
more ominous.
The improving activity climate was also reflected in the average number of
complete sales and stocks (per branch). The former increased by 6.1% on
the month to 15.2; the highest since last December but still well below the
long run average of 26.5. Meanwhile, average stocks increased by 1.5% on
the month to 66, but this is still well below the long run average of 83.5.
Given the more that proportionate increase in sales during December, the
sales to stock ratio – an indicator of market slack – increased to 23.1%, the
highest reading since last August but still below the long run average of
33.5%.
The key message from the confidence indicators remains unchanged in
April; sales expectations are positive, while price expectations are negative.
However, price expectations are significantly less negative than at the start
of the year.
Finally, there remains a distinct regional price pattern, with London bucking
the national trend. Indeed, London is the only region of England where more
surveyors are seeing rising rather than falling prices. In Wales, Northern
Ireland and Scotland, the price balance remains negative